Yemen is struggling to balance competing forces as it seeks to quell southern protests, a revived political opposition and rekindled northern rebellion, writes Dominic Moran for ISN Security Watch.

By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (18/04/08)

With a fragile peace process with northern rebels on the verge of collapse, President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government faces renewed pressure in southern Yemen in the wake of widespread disturbances earlier this month.

At least two people were killed, dozens wounded and close to 300 arrested in a fortnight of often violent clashes between youths and security forces in southern Yemen earlier this month. The protests were ostensibly sparked when military recruiters refused the enlistment applications of two southern youths.

Former members of the South Yemen military claim systematic discrimination in the payment of post-demobilization stipends and subsequent employment of southerners in the military and police, following the 1990 unification of the country and 1994 southern secessionist rebellion.

Referring to the post-unification status quo in the south, Nicole Stracke from the Gulf Research Center in Dubai told ISN Security Watch, "There was discrimination in terms of jobs, money, infrastructure and investments.

"Saleh would put in key positions people who are affiliated [with] him. And given that 70 percent of Yemen government revenue comes from oil, and that south Yemen has the oil, they feel [a sense of] injustice," she said.

The government was forced to send troops and armored personnel carriers (APCs) into the worst affected towns in a bid to quell the protests, establishing checkpoints on the road linking the capital Sana'a to the former South Yemen seat of government, Aden, in an apparent bid to prevent the expansion of the protests.

"Which organizations are directly involved is very difficult to say," an analyst specializing in Yemeni politics currently working in the country told ISN Security Watch on the condition of anonymity.

Quoted by Reuters, Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Mujur claimed on 11 April that the instigators of the disturbances "target Yemen unity and they work on forming illegal entities as a cover to carry out their plots.

"Certainly some of the demonstrators […] in the south are starting to do things that even a year ago would have been unthinkable: carrying old flags from the PDRY [People's Democratic Republic of Yemen/South Yemen]," the political analyst said. "There was the case of someone burning a Yemeni flag this month and they're quite openly calling for secession."

Socio-economic crisis

While calls for secession have been heard, a primary force driving recurrent waves of disturbances in the south and elsewhere in recent months appears to be the poor economic management of Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) and discontent at its untrammeled domination of the governance system.

Public sector and military employment is a fulcrum for southern protests because the security services constitute the largest single employer in a country in which up to 40 percent of the population live in poverty and unemployment stands at anywhere between 20-40 percent.

The analyst who requested anonymity explained that, "What is sparking them [the protests] is part of a much larger grievance against the regime. And what you are starting to see now is an increasingly common narrative between what is going on in the south and what's going on in the north [al-Houthi rebellion].

"At their heart, these demonstrations are about the inability of the government to provide basic services that include most of the people in the decision-making," she said, adding that the wave of southern protests is "building" and looks set to increase in "seriousness."

Political challenge

GPC Secretary General Abdul Qader Bajamal has accused the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) of fomenting the riots, hinting that they were seeking to undermine the government in league with foreign financiers.

The JMP, whose presidential candidate Faisal Othman Bin Shamlan snared just under 22 percent of the vote in the September 2006 election, is made up of the Sunni Islamist Islah party; the former governing party of South Yemen, the Yemen Socialist Party; and various smaller factions.

The opposition coalition has announced that it will boycott inaugural elections for regional governors on 27 April. GPC-dominated local governate and district council members will vote in the elections, guaranteeing that GPC incumbents selected by the president will remain in office.

Sources in Yemen tell ISN Security Watch that there is widespread discontent with the current governors, particularly in the south where many are transplanted northern appointees.

Apparently fearing a strong performance by the JMP in parliamentary elections tentatively scheduled for next year, the GPC has stepped up efforts to fracture the opposition front, spreading rumors that the constituent parties are at odds and that the JMP is a tool of its largest member, the 46-seat Islah party.

Referring to the organization of the 2009 poll, the political analyst said, "The opposition very clearly charges that the ruling party is not going to adhere to international best practices on this. And there is already talk that the election may not go ahead."

Islah, an umbrella movement for Islamists from various streams, is currently moving to expunge memories of its previously close relationship with the GPC, with which it formed a governing coalition until 1997.

Sources in Yemen also tell ISN Security Watch that the political marriage of convenience that is the opposition front is unlikely to hold over time despite the developing organizational capacity and coherence of the central JMP leadership.

Al Qaida vs Saleh

The US has ordered all non-essential diplomatic staff to leave the country and has issued a travel warning for its citizens following a mortar attack on its Sana'a embassy compound on 18 March. According to a government official the main suspect in the bombing is al-Qaida militant Hamza al-Dayan.

Al-Qaida in Yemen has stepped up its attacks on government targets and foreign interests and nationals in recent months, conducting a series of audacious assaults that appear to confirm the severing of the long-rumored relationship with the Saleh government – which reputedly enjoyed a modus vivendi with the old al-Qaida leadership.

Stracke explained that US assassination strikes against al-Qaida leaders in the wake of the 2001 USS Cole attack in Aden harbor, and a related government crackdown on the group, led to a period of relative quiet from 2004-2005.

"This changed in 2006 when 23 [jihadi] prisoners escaped. And among them was the leader of the new Yemen al-Qaida group, Nasir al-Wuhayshi," she said.

"He is dangerous because he is younger; has operated in Afghanistan; has combat experience; and he worked with Osama Bin Laden," she said. "He denounces the policy of the old al-Qaida, saying, 'We don't cooperate with the Yemeni government. We are going to be confrontational.'"

Recent attacks have been designed to undermine government revenues with strikes on oil facilities and pipelines and foreign oil companies and tourists. States with troops in Afghanistan have been a particular target, Stracke noted.

There are reportedly concerns among high-ranking Yemeni officials that the renewed violence and reports questioning the detention status of al-Qaida prisoners could endanger relations with the US.

US governmental aid agency Millennium Challenge Corporation has already responded to concerns regarding Yemeni civil reform efforts by confirming that it is reviewing its commitment to the country.

"Even though you have attacks now on US targets I don't think it will undermine US-Yemeni cooperation because it's essential for their war on terrorism that Yemen is under control," Stracke said, explaining that counterterrorism operations in Yemen are intended to attenuate the flow of militants and arms to al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia.

Collapse

The rise in al-Qaida attacks comes amid a growing crisis in the north, where February's Qatari-brokered peace agreement with al-Houthi insurgents appears on the verge of collapse.

Government forces and allied tribal factions have fought an on-again, off-again war against a Shia Zaydi faction, styling itself the Believing Youth, for the past four years in the northwestern Sa'ada province bordering Saudi Arabia.

"After the unification the Zaydis became more marginalized," Stracke said. They feel discriminated against "in terms of financial [disbursements]; in terms of posts; [and because] the government basically supported Saudi influence in the north in countering the Zaydis."

Violence flared again earlier this month with 18 killed in fighting between rebels and Bakhtan tribesmen.

"There is some large-scale fighting flaring up again this week," the political analyst confirmed Thursday, adding that it was difficult to develop a clear understanding of the renewed clashes as "there is pretty much a media blackout on what is going on there."

The Zaydis have traditionally dominated the politics of the north with their imamate controlling affairs in the region well into the 20th century. The al-Houthi family are descendants of Muhammad, entitled to traditional leadership roles under the imamate, and al-Houthi's views on the re-establishment of religious authority remain murky.

"The government tries to portray this as a sectarian conflict," the analyst explained. "At a very local level, that is an element, but I personally believe that it is local political grievances that are playing out through this war."

The government has made moves recently that appear to confirm the collapse of the peace deal. Officials have reaffirmed the government's request that Interpol hunt down Yahya al-Houthi, the brother of rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and are moving ahead with the trial of an alleged Sana'a al-Houthi support cell.

It was also announced this week that a presidential committee responsible for monitoring the peace agreement would not be traveling to Sa'ada until the rebels come down from their "mountain strongholds."

Stracke believes that growing pressure from al-Qaida may encourage the government to come to terms with the rebels.

The political analyst who requested anonymity explained that the government had previously courted the rebel al-Houthi faction, while also backing local rivals, promoting the instability that led to the conflict.

"It is really a symptom of the nature of government in this country at the moment, that the elite will play off different competing factions for short-term benefit without a much longer term vision of blowback that is likely to come back to haunt them," she said.

Asked if civil and democratic reform were on the cards, the analyst said, "Yemen is facing grave political and economic challenges and a crash is likely if major changes are not implemented immediately.

"Oil production is falling, the costs of basic commodities are rising and political violence is escalating and diversifying. The government must redirect its spending quickly if it is to stave off crisis."

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Dr Dominic Moran, based in Tel Aviv, is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East and the Director of Operations of ISA Consulting.

Related ISN Publishing House entries

Armed and Dangerous: Arms Proliferation Inside Yemen

Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy

Middle East Report, Nr. 8: Yemen - Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State

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